Phantasmal Flames Pull Rates, Odds & Investment Guide 2025 (Complete Analysis)

Pokémon TCG Phantasmal Flames: Pull Rates, Odds & Complete Guide

Quick Answer: Phantasmal Flames is the second main expansion of the Pokémon TCG Mega Evolution series, released November 14, 2025, with 130 cards (94 + 36 secret rares). Its chase card is the Mega Charizard X ex Special Illustration Rare (125/094), at $583.73 on TCGplayer and €603.11 on Cardmarket on November 2, 2026. The Pokémon Company doesn't publish pull rates. Community estimates put any Special Illustration Rare at about 1 in 80 to 1 in 100 packs, but they rest on small or unstated samples. A booster box sells for $387.12.

Key Takeaways

• 🔥 Six Mega Evolution Pokémon ex come in packs: Mega Heracross, Mega Charizard X, Mega Diancie, Mega Gengar, Mega Sharpedo and Mega Lopunny. When one is Knocked Out, your opponent takes 3 Prize cards.
• 💎 Five Special Illustration Rares and one Mega Hyper Rare: Mega Charizard X ex, Rotom ex, Mega Sharpedo ex, Mega Lopunny ex and Dawn, plus a gold Mega Charizard X ex (130/094).
• 💰 One card holds most of the value. The Charizard SIR is 60% of the summed market price of every card and printing in the set ($965.81).
• 🎲 No official pull rates. Community estimates: any SIR about 1 in 80-100 packs. The old 1-in-216 figure in this guide had no source.
• 📦 Buy the single if you want the Charizard. At $10.75 a pack in a booster box, chasing one specific SIR costs far more than its $583.73 market price.

Table of Contents

• Release Details and Availability Crisis
• Best Cards and Chase Cards Ranked by Value
• Mega Evolution Mechanic Creates High-Stakes Gameplay
• Competitive Meta Impact and Tournament Success
• Complete Card Breakdown by Rarity and Type
• Phantasmal Flames Pull Rates and Odds Analysis
• Theme and Artistic Direction
• Promotional Cards and Special Releases
• Investment Outlook and Market Trends
• Frequently Asked Questions

Release details and availability crisis

Launch Timeline

Phantasmal Flames released on November 14, 2025. Prerelease events at local game stores began on November 1, 2025, with Build & Battle Boxes as the prerelease product. Most of its cards come from the Japanese expansion Inferno X, released on September 26, 2025.

Availability at Launch

The set launched while Pokémon products were hard to find at retail, and sealed product quickly sold above store prices. The first version of this guide quoted specific figures about bot purchases at Pokémon Center and sellout times. We couldn't find a source for any of them, so we removed them.

What we can measure is today's price. On November 2, 2026, a booster box sold for $387.12 and an Elite Trainer Box for $147.31 on TCGplayer.

A Small Set

Phantasmal Flames has 130 cards: 94 in the main set and 36 secret rares. Recent main-series sets usually have well over 150, so a full set is cheap to build except for its top two cards. More on that under investment outlook.

Phantasmal Flames best cards and chase cards ranked by value

What are the best Phantasmal Flames cards to pull? By market value, the five Special Illustration Rares and the Mega Hyper Rare, with one card far ahead of the rest. All prices are TCGplayer market (USD) and Cardmarket trend (EUR) on November 2, 2026.

Top chase cards: Special Illustration Rares ranked

The Charizard SIR fell 32.7% in the 120 days to November 2, 2026, from $867.43, and the Mega Hyper Rare fell 47.9%, from $353.77. For the full price history, see our Phantasmal Flames market watch.

There is no Mega Gengar ex Special Illustration Rare in Phantasmal Flames. Mega Gengar ex is a Double Rare here (056/094, $1.74). Its Special Illustration Rare is in Ascended Heroes.

Trainer and Secondary Chase Cards

• Dawn (129/094), the only Trainer Special Illustration Rare, is the third most valuable card at $17.53. The regular full-art Dawn (118/094) is $5.48.
• Mega Charizard X ex (109/094), the Ultra Rare full art, is $20.37, more than any SIR except the Charizards.

Mid-Tier Special Illustration Rares

Mega Sharpedo ex ($17.37), Mega Lopunny ex ($11.66) and Rotom ex ($10.91) all trade between $10 and $18. Lopunny and Rotom each lost about 36-37% over the last 120 days, while Sharpedo lost 17%.

Budget-Friendly Illustration Rares

The set has 13 Illustration Rares (095/094 to 107/094). The most valuable are:

The other eight cost between $1.40 and $3.40 each.

Mega Evolution mechanic creates high-stakes gameplay

Core Mechanic Changes

• When a Mega Evolution Pokémon ex is Knocked Out, your opponent takes 3 Prize cards instead of 2.
• Unlike the XY-era rules, Mega Evolving no longer ends your turn.
• Mega Evolution Pokémon ex in Phantasmal Flames have 270 to 360 HP: Mega Diancie ex 270, Mega Heracross ex 280, Mega Sharpedo ex and Mega Lopunny ex 330, Mega Gengar ex 350, Mega Charizard X ex 360.
• Some are Basic Pokémon: in this set Mega Heracross ex and Mega Diancie ex, and in the first Mega Evolution set Mega Latias ex and Mega Kangaskhan ex.

Game-Changing Abilities

Card text from the official card list:

Oricorio ex, Excited Turbo: "As often as you like during your turn, if you have any {R} Mega Evolution Pokémon ex in play, you may use this Ability. Attach a Basic {R} Energy card from your hand to 1 of your Benched {R} Pokémon."

Toxtricity, Sinister Surge: once during your turn, search your deck for a Basic Darkness Energy and attach it to 1 of your Benched Darkness Pokémon, then put 2 damage counters on that Pokémon.

Mega Gengar ex, Shadowy Concealment: "If 1 of your {D} Pokémon is Knocked Out by damage from an attack from your opponent's Pokémon ex, that player takes 1 fewer Prize card." The effect doesn't stack.

Flygon, Sandy Flapping: when you evolve into Flygon from your hand, or when it's Knocked Out in the Active Spot, discard the top 2 cards of your opponent's deck.

Seviper, Excited Power: if you have any Darkness Mega Evolution Pokémon ex in play, its attacks do 120 more damage to your opponent's Active Pokémon. Its Pitch-Black Fangs attack does 120, so 240 in total.

Format Legality

Every Phantasmal Flames card carries the "I" regulation mark. Check the current Standard rotation before building a deck, because rotation dates change each season.

Competitive meta impact and tournament success

We don't track tournament results, and the first version of this guide quoted deck results and analysts we can't trace. This section describes what the key cards do, from their card text.

Mega Charizard X ex - Top Tier Fire

Mega Charizard X ex (360 HP) attacks with Inferno X for two Fire Energy: discard any amount of Fire Energy from among your Pokémon, and the attack does 90 damage for each card discarded. Oricorio ex's Excited Turbo and the Supporter Firebreather (search your deck for up to 7 Basic Fire Energy) supply the Energy it burns.

Gardevoir ex / Mega Diancie ex - Psychic Powerhouse

Mega Diancie ex (270 HP, Basic) has Diamond Coat, which reduces the damage it takes from attacks by 30. Its Garland Ray discards up to 2 Energy from itself and does 120 damage for each, up to 240. Wondrous Patch attaches a Basic Psychic Energy from your discard pile to a Benched Psychic Pokémon.

Mega Sharpedo ex - Pure Darkness Aggro

Mega Sharpedo ex (330 HP, Stage 1) has Hungry Jaws for two Darkness Energy: 120 damage, or 270 if it already has damage counters on it. Toxtricity's Sinister Surge puts damage counters on the Pokémon it powers up, which turns on Hungry Jaws.

Gholdengo ex / Mega Lopunny ex - Toolbox Control

Mega Lopunny ex (330 HP, Colorless, Stage 1) has Gale Thrust, 60 damage plus 170 more if it moved from the Bench to the Active Spot this turn, and Spiky Hopper, 160 damage that ignores effects on your opponent's Active Pokémon.

Mega Gengar ex Dark Box - Prize Trade Master

Mega Gengar ex (350 HP) attacks with Void Gale for 230 and moves an Energy to the Bench. With Shadowy Concealment, your Darkness Pokémon give up one fewer Prize card when an opponent's Pokémon ex Knocks them Out. Seviper (240 damage with a Darkness Mega in play) and Punk Helmet (4 damage counters on the attacker) fit the same Darkness deck.

Key Supporting Cards

• Firebreather (Supporter): search your deck for up to 7 Basic Fire Energy.
• Grimsley's Move (Supporter): look at the top 7 cards of your deck and put a Darkness Pokémon onto your Bench.
• Dawn (Supporter): search your deck for a Basic, a Stage 1 and a Stage 2 Pokémon.
• Wondrous Patch (Item): attach a Basic Psychic Energy from your discard pile to a Benched Psychic Pokémon.
• Punk Helmet (Tool): when the Darkness Pokémon it's attached to is damaged in the Active Spot, put 4 damage counters on the attacker.
• Battle Cage (Stadium): prevents damage counters from being placed on Benched Pokémon by the opponent's attacks and Abilities.

Meta Disruption Impact

For current tournament results, check the official Pokémon event results and community deck databases. Our data covers card prices, not play rates.

Complete card breakdown by rarity and type

The 94-card main set: 10 Grass, 10 Fire, 8 Water, 6 Lightning, 13 Psychic, 6 Fighting, 16 Darkness, 6 Metal and 9 Colorless Pokémon, plus 13 Trainers. By rarity, the full set has 43 Common, 31 Uncommon, 8 Rare, 2 Holo Rare, 10 Double Rare, 13 Illustration Rare, 17 Ultra Rare, 5 Special Illustration Rare and 1 Mega Hyper Rare.

Grass-Type Cards

Oddish, Gloom, Vileplume, Mega Heracross ex (004/094), Lotad, Lombre, Ludicolo, Genesect, Nymble, Lokix.

Fire-Type Cards (Set Centerpiece)

Charmander, Charmeleon, Mega Charizard X ex (013/094), Moltres, Darumaka, Darmanitan, Reshiram (Burning Flare: 240 damage, 60 to itself), Oricorio ex (018/094), Charcadet, Ceruledge.

Water-Type Cards

Seel, Dewgong, Swinub, Piloswine, Mamoswine, Suicune, Piplup, Prinplup. Piplup's line ends in Empoleon ex (070/094), which is a Metal-type card.

Electric-Type Cards

Rotom ex (029/094), Yamper, Boltund, Pawmi, Pawmo, Pawmot. Rotom ex's Multi Adapter lets each of your Rotom Pokémon hold up to 2 Pokémon Tools.

Psychic-Type Cards

Misdreavus, Mismagius ex (036/094), Snubbull, Granbull, Cresselia, Meloetta, Mega Diancie ex (041/094), Mimikyu, Milcery, Alcremie, Zacian, Bramblin, Brambleghast.

Fighting-Type Cards

Paldean Tauros, Gligar, Gliscor, Trapinch, Vibrava, Flygon.

Darkness-Type Cards (Extensive Support)

Gastly, Haunter, Mega Gengar ex (056/094), Murkrow, Honchkrow, Sableye, Carvanha, Mega Sharpedo ex (061/094), Seviper, Absol, Sandile, Krokorok, Krookodile, Toxel, Toxtricity, Eternatus. Darkness is the largest type in the set, with 16 cards.

Metal-Type Cards

Empoleon ex (070/094), whose Emperor's Stance prevents all effects of attacks done to it, plus Bronzor, Bronzong, Togedemaru, Duraludon and Archaludon.

Colorless-Type Cards

Jigglypuff, Wigglytuff, Aipom, Ambipom, Smeargle, Zigzagoon, Linoone, Buneary, Mega Lopunny ex (084/094).

Ultra Rares and Secret Rares

• Illustration Rares (095-107): Ludicolo, Nymble, Dewgong, Piplup, Yamper, Zacian, Flygon, Paldean Wooper, Toxtricity, Togedemaru, Wigglytuff, Meowth, Ambipom.
• Ultra Rare Pokémon ex (108-115): Mega Heracross ex, Mega Charizard X ex, Oricorio ex, Rotom ex, Mismagius ex, Mega Sharpedo ex, Empoleon ex, Mega Lopunny ex.
• Ultra Rare Trainers (116-122): Battle Cage, Blowtorch, Dawn, Firebreather, Grimsley's Move, Punk Helmet, Sacred Charm.
• Ultra Rare Item and Energy (123-124): Switch, Ignition Energy.
• Special Illustration Rares (125-129): Mega Charizard X ex, Rotom ex, Mega Sharpedo ex, Mega Lopunny ex, Dawn.
• Mega Hyper Rare (130): gold Mega Charizard X ex.

Phantasmal Flames pull rates and odds analysis

Can pack weighing or card tricks improve Phantasmal Flames pull rates?

No. There is no reliable way to tell what's inside a sealed pack, and trying (bending, feeling, shining a light through it) can damage the cards and the pack's value. Claims about weighing packs or "mapping" boxes come from much older sets and don't hold for modern product. If you want a specific card, buy the single.

Understanding Phantasmal Flames odds

The Pokémon Company doesn't publish official pull rates for Phantasmal Flames or any other set. What exists are community estimates:

Treat these numbers as rough guides. One source doesn't say how many packs it counted, and a 100-pack opening is far too small to measure odds of 1 in 100 or rarer. The first version of this guide said 1 in 216 for Special Illustration Rares. We couldn't find any source for that figure, and both estimates above disagree with it.

ETB vs Booster Box pull rates comparison

If any SIR comes up about once in 80 to 100 packs, the chance of at least one per product works out like this. Prices are TCGplayer market on November 2, 2026.

"Any SIR" includes four cards worth $11-$18. The chance that your SIR is the $583.73 Charizard is much lower.

Phantasmal Flames ETB pull rates

A standard Elite Trainer Box has 9 packs and a Charcadet promo. On the estimates above, about 1 ETB in 10 has a Special Illustration Rare. The Pokémon Center version has 11 packs and costs $276.89, almost twice the standard one, for two extra packs.

Standard Booster Products

• Booster pack: $12.39 (sleeved: $13.84).
• Booster box: 36 packs, $387.12, so $10.75 a pack.
• Booster bundle: 6 packs, $71.47.

Elite Trainer Boxes

• Elite Trainer Box: 9 booster packs, a Charcadet promo and the usual player accessories. $147.31.
• Pokémon Center Elite Trainer Box: 11 booster packs. $276.89.

Other Products

• Build & Battle Box: a 40-card deck, 4 booster packs and one of four foil promos (Ceruledge, Zacian, Flygon or Toxtricity). $63.07.
• Blisters: the 3-pack blisters come in Sneasel and Weavile versions ($42.37 and $42.78), the single-pack blisters in Cottonee and Whimsicott versions ($12.76 and $13.23).
• Mega Charizard X ex Ultra-Premium Collection: foil promos of Mega Charizard X ex and Oricorio ex, according to VGC ($119.99 at launch).

Pull Rates - Brutal Odds

The odds are not unusual for a modern set. What makes Phantasmal Flames hard is that one card holds 60% of the set's value. On community estimates, a single Special Illustration Rare comes up in about a third of booster boxes, but four of the five SIRs cost under $18.

Collector Experience and Market Impact

Opening packs for the Charizard SIR is entertainment, not a buying strategy. A booster box costs two thirds of the price of the single, and most boxes won't contain any SIR.

A complete set (one of each of the 130 cards) costs $948.68 at TCGplayer market prices on November 2, 2026. Without the two Charizard secret rares it's about $181.

Theme and artistic direction

The set pairs fire with ghosts. "Flames" is Mega Charizard X ex, whose blue-flamed Mega form centers the set, along with Moltres, Reshiram, Ceruledge and Oricorio ex. "Phantasmal" is the Ghost-type Pokémon: Mega Gengar ex and its line, Mismagius ex, Rotom ex, Sableye and Brambleghast.

The Special Illustration Rares come from five different artists: danciao (Mega Charizard X ex), Yoshimi Miyoshi (Rotom ex), nagimiso (Mega Sharpedo ex), Kinu Nishimura (Mega Lopunny ex) and Atsushi Furusawa (Dawn). Takuyoa drew the gold Mega Hyper Rare.

The 13 Illustration Rares are by 13 different artists, among them Jerky (Ludicolo), Jiro Sasumo (Piplup), REND (Wigglytuff) and Uninori (Meowth).

Mega Evolution returned to the Pokémon video games with Pokémon Legends: Z-A in 2025, and the Mega Evolution card series builds on that.

Promotional cards and special releases

All promos below are in the official Mega Evolution Black Star Promo list (MEP).

Build & Battle Box Promos

One of four foil promos comes in each Build & Battle Box:

• Ceruledge (MEP 014): Infernal Slash, 220 damage; discard 4 Basic Fire Energy from your hand or the attack does nothing.
• Zacian (MEP 015): Limit Break, 50 damage plus 90 more if your opponent has 3 or fewer Prize cards remaining.
• Flygon (MEP 016): Sandy Flapping Ability and Cutting Wind for 130.
• Toxtricity (MEP 017): Sinister Surge Ability and Gentle Slap for 100.

Elite Trainer Box Promos

Charcadet (MEP 022) comes in the Elite Trainer Box. Its Gather Strength attack searches your deck for up to 2 Basic Energy.

Ultra-Premium Collection Exclusive

The Mega Charizard X ex Ultra-Premium Collection includes foil promos of Mega Charizard X ex and Oricorio ex (VGC). The promo list has both cards as MEP 023 and MEP 024.

Blister Pack and Other Promos

The blisters are named after Cottonee, Whimsicott, Sneasel and Weavile, which are in the promo list as MEP 018 to MEP 021.

Retail-Exclusive Promos

The first version of this guide mentioned retailer-stamped promos and in-store launch events. We couldn't confirm them, so we removed them.

Distribution Challenges

We don't have reliable data on print runs or retail allocations. For what sealed product costs today, see the sealed prices above.

Investment outlook and market trends

Launch Day Price Volatility

The first version of this guide quoted launch-day ranges from several trackers, from $450 to $950 for the Charizard SIR. We can't verify those figures. Our own price history starts on July 5, 2026, when the card was at $867.43.

Growth Projections

We don't publish price projections. The first version of this guide gave monthly growth rates and a "$600+ by mid-2026" target. What actually happened, according to our data: the Charizard SIR was $867.43 on July 5, 2026 and fell to $583.73 by November 2, 2026, lower at every snapshot in between.

Sealed Product Investment Potential

On November 2, 2026 a booster box sold for $387.12 and an Elite Trainer Box for $147.31 on TCGplayer. Our data has no price history for sealed Pokémon products, so we can't show how they've moved.

Phantasmal Flames Booster Box Price Prediction (2025-2027)

The first version of this guide predicted $350-$650 for a booster box by November 2026, from "$280-$327" in November 2025. On November 2, 2026 the market price was $387.12. We don't make a new prediction for 2027: nothing in our data supports one.

Long-Term Value Drivers

Things that could support prices: Charizard is the chase card, the set is small (130 cards), and Mega Evolution is new to current players. Things that could weigh on them: the top cards are still falling, and most of the set's value sits in one card, so the set depends on Charizard demand.

For how Charizards have held value over decades, see our list of the most expensive Pokémon cards ever sold.

Risk Factors

• Concentration: one card is 60% of the set's value.
• Falling prices: both Charizard secret rares have dropped at every snapshot since July 2026.
• Reprints: The Pokémon Company decides print runs, and we have no data on them.

Frequently asked questions about Phantasmal Flames

What are the pull rates for Phantasmal Flames?

The Pokémon Company doesn't publish them. Community estimates put any Special Illustration Rare at about 1 in 80 to 1 in 100 packs, Illustration Rares at about 1 in 9, Ultra Rares at about 1 in 12 and the gold Mega Hyper Rare at about 1 in 1,260. These come from small or unstated samples, so treat them as rough guides.

What are Phantasmal Flames ETB pull rates?

An Elite Trainer Box has 9 packs (the Pokémon Center version has 11). If any SIR comes up about once in 80 to 100 packs, a standard ETB has roughly a 9-11% chance of at least one Special Illustration Rare, and the Pokémon Center ETB about 10-13%.

Are Phantasmal Flames odds better in Booster Boxes or ETBs?

The odds per pack are the same. A booster box just has more packs (36) and a lower price per pack: $10.75 against about $16.37 in a standard ETB, at TCGplayer prices on November 2, 2026. On community estimates, a box has a 30-36% chance of at least one SIR.

Is Phantasmal Flames a good investment?

We can't tell you, because nothing in our data predicts future prices. What it shows: the Mega Charizard X ex SIR, which holds 60% of the set's value, fell from $867.43 to $583.73 between July 5 and November 2, 2026. A booster box sold for $387.12 on November 2, 2026.

What is the Phantasmal Flames card trick?

There isn't one. No technique tells you what's inside a sealed pack, and trying (bending, feeling, shining a light through it) can damage the pack. If you want a specific card, buying the single is the only sure route: the Mega Charizard X ex SIR is $583.73, while a booster box is $387.12 and most boxes contain no Special Illustration Rare at all.

Should I buy Phantasmal Flames for investment?

That depends on your own risk tolerance, and we don't give investment advice. The facts: sealed booster boxes sell for $387.12 and ETBs for $147.31 (November 2, 2026). The top singles have fallen for at least four months, and our data has no sealed price history.

How many Phantasmal Flames Booster Boxes to pull Mega Charizard X ex SIR?

Nobody knows exactly, because there are no official pull rates. TCGTalk estimates it at rarer than 1 in 1,250 packs. If that's right, you'd need about 35 booster boxes on average, roughly $13,400 at $387.12 a box, against $583.73 for the single on TCGplayer.

What are Mega Evolution pull rates in Phantasmal Flames?

Mega Evolution Pokémon ex appear at three rarities. The Double Rare versions (like Mega Gengar ex 056/094) are part of the roughly 1-in-5-packs Double Rare slot, according to community estimates. Ultra Rare full arts (Mega Heracross, Mega Charizard X, Mega Sharpedo, Mega Lopunny) come in about 1 in 12 packs, and the Special Illustration Rares (Mega Charizard X, Mega Sharpedo, Mega Lopunny) about 1 in 80-100 packs for any SIR. None of these odds is official.

Sources & Method

• Release date, card list, numbers, rarities, card text and illustrators: TCGdex, set ME02 and the Mega Evolution Black Star Promos. The PokéWallet catalogue gives the same date and rarity breakdown.
• Japanese source set: Elite Fourum, "M2 Inferno X (September 26, 2025) / EN ME02 Phantasmal Flames (November 14, 2025)".
• Ultra-Premium Collection contents and launch price: VGC.
• Pull rates: community estimates from Card Codex (November 18, 2025) and TCGTalk. The Pokémon Company doesn't publish official odds. Product odds in the tables are our own calculation from those estimates.
• Prices: PokéWallet API feed of TCGplayer (market price, USD) and Cardmarket (trend, EUR), pulled on November 2, 2026. Price changes come from the card price history endpoint (snapshots up to 120 days). Sealed products have no price history in our data.
• Correction: the November 14, 2025 version of this guide had a 1-in-216 SIR pull rate with no source, a Mega Gengar ex SIR that isn't in the set, wrong HP and attacks for several Mega Evolution Pokémon ex, the wrong illustrator for the Charizard SIR, and launch figures (bot purchases, sellouts, retailer promos) we couldn't confirm. This version replaces all of them.

Track Phantasmal Flames Card Values with PokéWallet

Phantasmal Flames prices have been falling at the top of the set, so when you buy matters. PokéWallet gives you TCGplayer and Cardmarket prices for every card in this guide, refreshed daily, plus price history for Pokémon cards. Developers can pull the same data from the sets endpoint.

• 📊 TCGplayer & Cardmarket prices for every card, refreshed daily
• 📈 Price history for Pokémon cards on the Pro plan, with snapshots from 7 to 120 days ago
• 🆓 Free plan with 1,000 requests a day
• 💬 Community discussion in our Discord

Get Started:

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This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Card prices are volatile; always check current market prices before buying or selling.